Vanguard Theory: The Value of Damage

In Vanguard damage is how you win. Get the opponent to six damage, thats the end goal. Unlike many other games, damage is usable through counterblasts. So to determine the value of damage we need to make some assumptions on how much guard they are worth and how much counter blasts are worth. We will also be doing this calculation assuming you are the one deciding whether to take the damage.

Guard Value:
In a normal game in the limit break era people will generally take damage up until limit break, and I expect as much guarding as a player can manage at that point during the legion era. So taking this point i the game as our basis damage should be worth about 15k guard. Which is how much it is to "2-pass" your opponents vanguard when it is between 16-20k power while boosted. I make this assumption because 2-pass is generally safe with an about 10% chance of getting double triggers and many players playing on the safe side and not gambling on it.

But how many cards is 15k shield? well based on many calculations not from myself the average shield value per card is 5k. But we can run through the calculation really quick using the assumption that you aren't running draw triggers to maximize the total amount of guard in the deck. Another assumption will be the 14-11-8 1-2-3 grade ratio since it is generally the most common.

A.) 16 triggers * 10k guard/ trigger = 160k guard
B.) (14 grade one. + 11 grade two) * 5k guard/card  = 125k guard
C.) 8 grade three * 0 guard/card = 0 guard

Total Shielding = A + B + C = 160k + 125k +0 = 285k total guard

Average Shielding Per Card = 285k guard/ 49 cards = 5.8 guard/card

Kind of an odd number but lets go with it. So to get above 15k guard you would need 2.6 cards at average guard value. So if you take the damage you effectively lose 2.6 cards

Guard value = -2.6 cards

Note: Guard value will change since vanguards power up as the game progresses but by using this as a baseline it will help explain many of the choices such as guarding before legions power boost to 21k+

Counter Blast Value:

Previously it was 2 Counter Blast (CB) for one card represented by cards like the infamous Beserk Dragon of Kagero, which has "CB2; Retire an opponents grade 2 or less" In the legion era it shifts to 

CB 1 in exchange for one with cards such as Blaster Blade Seeker, and Blaster Dark Revenger Abyss. 

Thus if you take a damage you get one counter blast to use and hence another card. Since it is the dawn of the legion era for english ( the format that I play) we will use that. 

CB value = 1 card

The total value of you taking a damage is

CB value + Guard Value = -1.6 cards

From these assumptions and calculations we can see that In general 1 damage = 1.6 cards. In otherwords if you take take you lose 1.6 cards and if you heal then you gain that many.

( I know this article doesn't do much on its own but I think its good groundwork to lay for future analysis and theory articles.) 

Have a Great Day Vanguardians,

~ Bambi